“The Impact of Climate Change on the Middle East –
Converging and Diverging Perceptions on Development and Human Security”
According to the estimates of the International Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, the Mashreq region and North Africa will be the region most severely affected by climate change in the coming decades. A decline in precipitation levels and unsustainable use of aquifers already reduce the availability of water in the region while high birth rates and agricultural production increase the demand for water. Moreover, due to economic and population growth, energy demand is soaring and thus far largely met by the combustion of non-renewable, hydrocarbon energy sources which increase the emission of greenhouse gases. In addition, a volatile security situation with low-intensity conflicts decreases the willingness of the states in the region to jointly respond to these problems. Against this background, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Heinrich Böll Foundation Arab Middle East Office Ramallah and The Royal Marine Conservation Society of Jordan (JREDS) as the local organizer will jointly host an international conference on "The Impact of Climate Change on the Middle East – Challenges and Opportunities for Development and Security". The aim of the conference will be twofold: first, by amassing perspectives on the various impacts of climate change on the countries of the Levant (Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria) plus Egypt and Turkey and, secondly, by assessing the security aspects of these changes and/or the adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Conference Panels
The conference aims to address the impact of climate change on the countries mentioned above along three thematic clusters, namely (1) climate change and energy, (2) climate change and water and, thirdly, (3) climate change and food production/economic development. These clusters are overlapping and analytically not fully separable but reflect the key academic debates on the topic. In addition, they serve as a fruitful point of departure for interdisciplinary research and for a synthesis of political practice and academic analysis when it comes to (4) the security implications. In addition, they are also able to highlight the different discourses on climate change in Europe and the MENA states.
1. Climate Change and Energy
Energy demand in the countries of the Levant and Egypt as well as Turkey is increasing at a much faster pace as in Europe. Although renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power are abundant, its full potential remains unexploited and, in addition, a contested issue. As the example of the Desertec project (that seeks to develop an integrated electricity grid of European countries and their Mediterranean neighbors) shows, there are considerable fears in all non-European countries to fall prey to neo-colonial European ambitions. Since the Desertec project is expected to contribute little to technological advancement and innovation as well as to employment in the region there is considerable resentment to an idea that is perceived to maintain the asymmetric relationship between the former countries and their European counterparts.
Contributions to this panel might address national energy strategies and policies, highlight the role of renewable and non-renewable energies or address the aspects of technology transfer, infrastructure development (grid) and cooperation of states (i.e. joint strategies).
2. Climate Change and Water
In terms of water resources, Jordan and its neighbors are among the poorest countries in the world. Water-scarcity is expected to become more pressing in the light of continuous population growth and increased agricultural production. Moreover, the joint management of fresh water resources, most notably of the Jordan River but also of cross-national aquifers, are highly politicized issues that are related to unresolved territorial claims. However, the lack of water is not only related to political disputes but also to water-intense agricultural production and an ailing infrastructure. National and local plans to address the issue of water shortage in the region do however deviate substantially and include, amongst others, diversion of rivers, building of dams and large scale desalination.
Contributions to this panel might address national water conservation strategies and policies, assessment of the threats of desertification, changes in precipitation levels, water treatment and water storage technologies, the role of virtual water for policy-making, technological innovation (i.e. in detecting water leakages in pipes).
3. Climate Change and Food Production/Economic Development
Food security is already a political concern and highly emotive issue in many countries in the region. Food production in the region is largely determined by the availability of water either from rain or from irrigation. Already, the Middle East is the world’s most dependent region on wheat imports. Climate change might therefore fundamentally alter the distribution of the world agricultural output and exacerbate the volatility in prices: decreased climatic stability will be associated with more frequent spikes in food costs. These developments come at a time when a considerable part of the population is still working in the agricultural sector.
Contributions to this panel might address environmental protection schemes, economic diversification strategies, studies on the potential of combining environmental technologies with economic growth (green tech) and ways to decrease the vulnerability of populations and markets on food imports. In addition, the panel might address prospects for sustainable development by decreasing the water-intensity in the production of local produce.
4. Plenary
In a second step, participants shall scrutinize their findings with respect to the security implications of climate change in the three mentioned areas. Security concerns in Europe are often linked to spill-over effects of broader technological and socio-economic phenomena. Projects such as the construction of nuclear power plants that are currently discussed in all countries of the Arab region, pose a potential threat to sustainable development. In addition, population growth and climate-induced migration may result in tensions among the states of the region and even further reduce the level of regional stability. In some states of the region, the example of nuclear power plants is, however, considered a question of technological advancement and an issue of moving away from fossil fuels.
The joint findings should summarize the difference perspectives and highlight the potential security implications and interlinkages between the three hitherto studies areas, i.e. energy, water and food production/economic development.
Who can participate
The event is limited to 20 participants, aged between 30 and 40 who demonstrate academic expertise and/or policy experience in the mentioned field. Participants will work in academic institutions, e.g. as assistant or associate professors, or be associated with the policy-making domain, i.e. work for research institutes, international organizations or state ministries. All participants will be selected based on the quality of their application.
Methodology
The conference will be composed of four parts. Besides a social gathering and brief sightseeing tour of Amman the first part of the conference will include the opening with a key-note speech from a Jordanian government official.
In a second part, participants will convene in the three separate panels to present their input statements of some 2.000 words (which were forwarded to the organisers by October) to their peers (i.e. energy or water or food production/economic development) for a maximum of 15 minutes each. After the presentations, a chair/facilitator will moderate the ensuing discussion and summarise the key findings, points of contestation in order to present them in the plenary meeting which will then also feature a plenary discussion.
The third part of the conference will be devoted to three working groups in which the participants of the respective panels are expected to discuss the security implications of the aspects they addressed in their input statements in order to draft a joint paper of 2-3 pages that synthesises the individual contributions and that addresses further aspects that were raised in the discussions.
In a fourth step, the collective findings are then presented to the whole group and eventually discussed in a closing debate.
After the conference, participants are expected to submit their revised input statements of approx. 2.000 words (3-4 pages) to the organisers who will then review the texts prior to their publication in the final conference report.
The tasks for each participant will hence include the:
(a) Preparation and presentation of a concise written input statement in the form of a commentary outlining one of the aspects dealt with in one of the three panels (approx. 2.000 words)
(b) Preparation and writing of a joint paper (2-3 pages) in each of the three working groups (structured along the lines of the panels)
(c) Presentation of the group results and active participation in the final debate together with local experts and stakeholders
(d) Submission of the revised input statement to the organizing institutions (approx 2.000-3.000 words)
Outputs
Heinrich-Boell Stiftung and JREDS will publish the individual working papers and the joint findings in English and Arabic and distribute them via their network to universities and research institutions. In addition, DGAP will publish a selection of the papers in its in-house journal Internationale Politik in German and English.
For further information please see:
Call for Application
Application Form